FORECASTING DEMAND
AND SALES
Retailers build Customer confidence by confirming that the products they want are available. This is due to effective forecasting and replenishment. Atriny’s experience and our tools help retailers satisfy their Customers’ needs and lower maintenance costs by accurately controlling inventory levels, increasing throughput, and streamlining operations. Built-in smart analytic tools provide visibility at every stage of the supply chain to improve forecasting and replenishment.
The solution guarantees an optimal sales forecast for both permanent goods (replenishment) and promotional goods. This solution can significantly reduce operating and logistics costs while taking into account commercial and marketing restrictions in each store.
The main goals pursued by the implementation of sales forecasting tools.
- Reduced investment in stocks (optimal stocks)
- Maximizing GMROII (return on investment in stocks) in terms of Cost Reduction and Profit Increase.
- Decrease in COGS (reducing the purchase prices and transportation costs), optimal use of economies of scale in procurement
- Frequency / Procurement Schedule Optimization
- Inventory decline
- Minimizing storage space
- Increase Inventory Turnover
- Increase sales, minimize markdowns
- Investment (speculative) purchases
- Improving operations productivity (procurement)
- Desired goods
- In the right place
- In the right amount
- Decrease in expenses for routine operations, automation of routine operations
- Optimization of working hours of procurement specialists
- Optimization of storage space
- Load Alignment at Acceptance
3 BASIC ADVANTAGES
Create Customer
oriented forecasts
The retailer’s forecast manages every stage of the supply chain, so retailers need to edit them correctly. The best of them are based on Customer-based inventory management and optimized service levels. Our solutions help retailers accurately predict demand across all channels — by applying analytics to historical and real-time data to create reliable forecasts for managing the entire supply chain.
Automatic recharge management
Retail chains need to ensure product availability while minimizing the time and cost of moving inventory across the supply chain. Our replenishment and warehouse solutions include pre-configured analytics that streamline and automate decision-making, support better replenishment strategies, and streamline direct orders for warehouses or suppliers to minimize errors, reduce costs, and speed up from time to time.
Stock distribution management, including store opening and reformatting
When managing stock distribution for single events, such as opening a store, launching promotions or selling seasonal goods, retailers should have the right amount of assortment in the right places. Our solutions centrally plan and control the assortment and distribution of goods in certain periods for certain trading events.
The advantages of using a forecasting solution are the availability of the necessary functionality (Best Practices in the industry):
- Forecasting the demand of the goods for the pair "product / store";
- Base period management;
- Management of the period of coverage;
- Weekly forecast and daily distribution;
- Seasonality management;
- Management of relations between goods (New goods; Options; Replacement);
- Management of special weeks (Easter, New Year, ...);
- Management of external factors (temperature, rates, market indicators ...);
- Considers the effect of promotions;
- Direct and indirect influences (cannibalization, “halo”);
- Goods, Groups of goods;
- ABC classification and service level management of goods;
- Automatic correction of abnormal events and out-of-stock (filtering, smoothing);
- Automatic mass correctors of historical data and / or forecast (By site group and product group; By site);
- Manual adjustment of forecast calculation results and historical data;
- Alerts generated for end users by the prediction engine.
The functionality of the forecasting solution can be used in various architectures:
- Independently, as a stand-alone software, to predict the needs of stores. Prediction results can be uploaded to external systems for placing orders.
- Together with the automatic ordering system included in our toolkit. In this case, the solution provides automatic formation of orders and transfer from external systems to execution.
- As part of our product line. This solution provides the lowest integration costs and full solution functionality.
The main benefits of introducing a forecasting system in conjunction with the automatic order generation system are associated with an increase in the accuracy of calculating the needs of stores for goods, which leads to a reduction in stocks, loss reduction and the prevention of lost profits with insufficient stocks of popular goods.
The main advantages gained by implementing the solution
- Forecasting accuracy with optimal use of available resources
- Decision-making efficiency: achieving a sufficient level of accuracy at the lowest cost and optimal use of resources is key in Retail
- A simple but effective process. No need for in-depth knowledge in statistics.
- The solution automatically selects forecasting algorithms depending on the specifics of the historical data of goods: seasonality accounting; Slow movers, fast movers, sporadic or irregular.
- Accounting for the effects of promos, special weeks (holidays), adjustment of lost sales.
- The introduction of new goods, taking into account the effects of goods and product groups on each other.
- Quantitative optimization
- Purpose-based replenishment at the level of service.
- Decrease in risks of deficit due to: Quality control of forecasting; Supplier Service Level Control.
- Optimization of transport costs (Purchased logistics units, rounding, vehicle loading, price levels ...).
- Optimization of planning and frequency of procurement (the ability to calculate the optimal frequency of procurement).
Complete Integrated Solution
- An integrated solution that supports the complete procurement management process.
- A single data model without the integration and implementation of multiple interfaces.
- Synchronized forecasting processes, replenishment of warehouses, allowing to optimize the supply chain in accordance with customer demand.
- Low total cost of ownership (TCO).
- Flexible licensing model.
- Ease of use and training. The ability to easily manage complex forecasting and replenishment processes.
- Speed and efficiency of solution deployment and management/support.